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Regional trends defy community patterns CHIRDEEP BAGGA & SAMIRAN CHAKRAWERTTI TIMES NEWS NETWORK[ THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 09, 2004 01:20:46 AM ]NEW DELHI: Glancing at the Census figures by religion, it is easy to imagine the country neatly divided into different religious groups and to compare the statistics for different groups profile them as internally homogenous. However, this is much further from the truth than you might imagine. For instance, while the national female literacy rates for Sikhs at 63.1% is much higher than the national female literacy rates for Muslims at 50.1%, the literacy rate for Muslims in Tamil Nadu at 76.2% far exceeds the female literacy rate of 61.2% for Sikhs in Punjab! This isn't an isolated case. There are innumerable examples of regional trends prevailing over community patterns. The data makes it all too obvious that the religious identity is only one of many that determines the socio-economic profile of different groups and often is a relatively minor factor. For instance, the sex ratio among Muslims on a country-wide basis is at 936 somewhat higher than the Hindu average of 931. However, the situation is dramatically different in Uttaranchal, where the sex ratio among Hindus is a very respectable 978, while the figure for Muslims is a worrying 875. Take Kerala and Bihar. In Bihar, the literacy rates for Hindus, Muslims, Sikhs and Christians is 47.9%, 42%, 71.1% and 79.8% respectively, while in Kerala the literacy rate is 90.2%, 89.4%, 94.8% and 92.4% respectively. Thus, not only is the literacy rate higher for each group in Kerala than in Bihar, even the worst off group on this parameter in the southern state is considerably better off than the best placed religious group in Bihar. Also the distinctions between the different groups are virtually negligible in Kerala, while there are huge gaps across communities in Bihar. The differences in regional patterns within the same group are not just restricted to social indicators like literacy or sex ratios. They apply equally to even the indicator that has received all the attention ??” the growth rates of population. Thus, while the Msulim population in Bihar grew by as little as 7.3% over the entire decade 1991-2001, the increase in Maharashtra was 34.6%. While the Census figures on religion do provide interesting insights about different religious groups, therefore, it helps to remember that these figures tell the story of millions of people from all over the country and it wouldn't be too wise to expect them to apply everywhere, or indeed, anywhere, for certain. A one-size-fits-all approach to the numbers is as out of place in looking at religious groups as it would be in any other context. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TODAY'S EDITORIAL Lies and Statistics? [ THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 09, 2004 12:00:00 AM ] Bring credibility back to India's numbers Everybody knows that the late NDA government wanted to rewrite India's history to suit its peculiar ideological obsessions. Now, there is some evidence to indicate that it might have been massaging statistics over the last few years to make contemporary reality look more presentable to its constituents. On Monday, J K Banthia, registrar-general and census boss announced that in the 10 years from 1991-2001, the Muslim population had jumped 36 per cent, a growth rate that is higher than that of the previous decade and, of course, higher than the rate at which India's Hindu population has grown. All handouts released to media made the same point. The sangh parivar, which feeds on the paranoia of a 13 per cent Muslim population overtaking India's 80 per cent Hindu majority someday, made a feast of this tidbit. Trouble is, the census boss wasn't being entirely correct: he glossed over the fact that the 1991 census didn't count people in Jammu & Kashmir, India's only Muslim-majority state, which the present one does. Correcting for that distortion, the Muslim population growth rate through 1991-2001 falls to 29 per cent, a big decline over the 1981-91 growth figure. We do not know whether Banthia, appointed by the BJP-led regime, sparked off an entirely irrelevant debate deliberately, but his actions were certainly irresponsible. Recently, it has become clear that in order to burnish its 'India Shining' campaign with statistical gloss, the previous regime massaged inflation numbers. Research by a reputed finance company shows that key parameters of the wholesale price index (WPI), which measures hikes in producers' prices, were left unchanged for long periods ??” for as much as 46 months in some cases. The net effect of holding these numbers constant was to make inflation look lower than it actually was. Given that, it's no coincidence that one of the main campaign planks of the BJP was the supposedly-low level of inflation. Short-term numerical fiddles cast long shadows: The credibility of India's data-reporting system has been built up painstakingly, often at the cost of major embarrassment to the political system. The actions of the previous regime could severely undermine confidence in the entire system and reduce policymaking, which relies heavily on accurate numbers, to a hit-and-miss exercise. In terms of data accuracy, India has always been compared favourably to China. The NDA has done a lot to dent that trust. The UPA regime must undo the damage, bring back accountability and weed lies out of statistics. |
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