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Storytime Tapestry Newsletter
The newsletter devoted to
spreading love and cultural awareness around the world.
Jan 27, 2007
Wonders of the Orient – A
Jastine Leng Column
Chinese
Government is Winning the Battle Against Outages
Jastine Leng
IN THE summer of 2004, Shanghai, like many
Chinese cities, was grapping with debilitating power shortages. Neon lights
were ordered switched off, air conditioning was restricted, and rationing
forced factories either to rely on diesel generators or suffer intermittent
stoppages. But Shanghai’s mayor, Han Zheng, was confident that the dire situation would
turn around soon enough. He argued that so many new generating plants were
already approved or under construction that Shanghai would son
double is existing capacity. “If you come back in three years,” he predicted,
“you will instead be asking me, Mr. Mayor, what will Shanghai do with all of
its surplus power?”
His predictions
look like being right. Shortages were indeed less acute in 2005, and officials
recently announced that after mild shortages during the summer peak season,
electricity supply and demand will achieve rough balance by the end of the
year. Two of China’s top power
producers, Huangeng Power International and Datang International Power
Generation, reported output increases in 2005 of 31.7 percent and 27.1 percent
respectively.
This year alone,
China expects to add
a staggering 81 gigawatts of new capacity. Over the nest five years, the
government plans to invest 600 billion yuan ($ 75 billion) in still more power
plants. The State Grid Corporation of China, meanwhile,
plans to spend 800 billion yuan over the same period, expanding and upgrading
its transmission networks.
All this new
investment has prompted worries of a power glut, and some muttering from
officials about the possible need to curb investment in order to prevent
oversupply. But it was just such concerns that led to the shortages of recent
years. In its planning for the 2001-2005 period, China forecast 5%
annual increases in power demand, but actual rises were more than twice as much
in each of those years.
With economic
growth expected to remain at or near double-digit rates for the foreseeable
future, China will see no
shortage of new factories, homes and commercial properties needing to plug into
the grid. Rising living standards mean more of those will be using power-hungry
appliances and air-conditioning systems. China’s power
consumption per head stands at only about half the world average, and is just a
fraction of that in developed countries. But no one doubts it will continue to
rise.
Rising is also China’s demand for oil. Here too, officials are waxing optimistic, at
least for the short term. China this month proudly noted that its ratio of imported oil declined
3.4 percentage points to 42.9 % last year. Overall oil consumption actually
dropped slightly last year. While the government was quick to credit its
successful conservation policies, the reduction probably had more to do with
last year’s high oil prices. In the longer term, though, oil demand can only
rise. China now makes and sells more than a quarter of a million cars each
month, and the nation’s efforts to secure stakes in foreign oil supplies are
ample testimony to the government’s view on future rising demand. Recent good
news notwithstanding, it will be a challenge to keep the lights burning and the
cars running on the streets of Shanghai.
Jastine Leung
ghoul_pink_fantasy@yahoo.com
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